Iraq is a Huge Kindergarten

The people of Iraq are incapable of immediate self rule. They are incapable of securing their own country. They are incapable of forming an opinion and sticking to it. They are like little children.

This is a text book example of the mindset of a people under 40 years of dictatorship. They are programmed to submit to whatever authority presents itself, as evidenced by the defection of the old Ba'ath army and the newly trained Iraqi security forces. You can't just walk into the room and say, "OK, you're all free now." It has no immediate meaning. It will require a few years to completely sink in.

Therefore, those who are accustomed to authority will lead the people. The battle for leadership among these groups is going on right now. The U.S., the CGA, the ex-Ba'athists (Sunnis), the religious clerics and, of course, the terrorists from other countries. To believe that these groups bode well for democracy seems rather far-fetched to me. I have always been convinced that Iraq would end up an Islamic state, although models such as Turkey and Lebanon present fragile and imperfect goals for the future.

Patience is required in the current situation if it is not to blow up. While U.S. citizens are crying for crushing the rebellions...and we could...they may not appreciate the nuances of the situation in Iraq, and that the only hope for a satisfactory solution from an Iraqi point of view lies in subtleties, saving face, and inclusion of representatives from all disgruntled groups, even Sadr himself. Distasteful though this may be, it is the only hope for any near-term possibility of resolution. We are playing a very tricky chess game, and one we cannot afford to lose, or the war will come to our soil.

The U.S. should not have set a date certain for transfer of power, an idea which currently seems ridiculous. However, the best path is to now announce a transfer in phases. It is difficult to even imagine what a first phase would be under current circumstances. But we should try accommodate the date now that it has been set; to do otherwise would be perceived by the terrorists as a victory.

Perhaps we should be looking at a three-state solution.

This will not end well.

The Pimpernel